Volatile DRAM and Flash Memory Cycles Weigh On IC Market Growth

At $99.4 billion, the DRAM market was by far the largest single product category in the semiconductor industry in 2018, exceeding NAND flash ($59.4 billion), the second-largest market by $40.0 billion.  Since 2013, the memory market has been a tailwind (i.e., positive influence) on total annual worldwide ICmarket growth and only once a headwind (i.e., negative influence) (Figure 2).

Figure 2

A memory market segment surge of 64% in 2017 helped boost the total IC market growth rate by a whopping 14 percentage points.  Despite a fourth quarter slowdown, the 2018 memory market grew by a strong 26%, providing a very substantial six point positive impact on worldwide IC market growth for the full-year.
For 2019, the memory market is forecast to be a significant headwind on worldwide IC market growth. The total memory market is forecast to fall by 24% this year (a decline of $38.6 billion).  The big decline in the memory market is forecast to drag down total IC market growth by 9%.  Factoring out memory, the total IC market growth rate is forecast to be flat (0%) this year.
Report Details:  The 2019 McClean Report
Additional details on IC market trends and forecasts are provided in The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2019).  A subscription to The McClean Report includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 200+ page Mid-Year Update), and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year.  An individual-user license to the 2019 edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password.  A multi-user worldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.